Edmon Lopez Moller v Mohammad Alsarraj (Sat 10 Nov 2018)
Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-5,9-11,11-9,11-8.
Starting level for
Edmon Lopez Moller:
28,720, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mohammad Alsarraj:
21,708, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Mohammad Alsarraj.
Edmon Lopez Moller won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played
26% better than Mohammad Alsarraj in this match.
In this case, Edmon Lopez Moller played at level 27,645 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Edmon Lopez Moller would normally have been playing at level 27,996 (based on typical behaviour), Mohammad Alsarraj played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to 0% and Mohammad Alsarraj changes to +0.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes 0% and for Mohammad Alsarraj becomes +0.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Valencia Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 84%, Mohammad Alsarraj: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 82%, Mohammad Alsarraj: 90%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller:
28,623, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Mohammad Alsarraj:
21,935, level confidence: 90%.