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Saurav Ghosal v Karim El Hammamy (Fri 09 Nov 2018)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-2.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 46,166, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 25,474, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 136% better than Karim El Hammamy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 52,651 and Karim El Hammamy at a level of 22,337. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.3% and 10.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +10.3% and Karim El Hammamy changes to -8.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +2.4% and for Karim El Hammamy becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kolkata International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 85%, Karim El Hammamy: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 74%, Karim El Hammamy: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 46,991, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 25,099, level confidence: 80%.