SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Edmon Lopez Moller v Harry Falconer (Thu 08 Nov 2018)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-4.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 27,464, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 17,183, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Harry Falconer.

Edmon Lopez Moller won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 200% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of 37,626 and Harry Falconer at a level of 12,542. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +28% and Harry Falconer changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +5.8% and for Harry Falconer becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Valencia Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Harry Falconer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 88%, Harry Falconer: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 64%, Harry Falconer: 63%.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 29,054, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 16,365, level confidence: 63%.