Edmon Lopez Moller v Harry Falconer (Thu 08 Nov 2018)
Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-4.
Starting level for
Edmon Lopez Moller:
27,464, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
17,183, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing
60% better than Harry Falconer.
Edmon Lopez Moller won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played
200% better than Harry Falconer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Edmon Lopez Moller actually played at a level of
37,626 and Harry Falconer at a level of
12,542. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to +28% and Harry Falconer changes to -28%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes +5.8% and for Harry Falconer becomes -6.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Valencia Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Harry Falconer is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 88%, Harry Falconer: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 64%, Harry Falconer: 63%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller:
29,054, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
16,365, level confidence: 63%.