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Todd Harrity v Martin Svec (Thu 08 Nov 2018)

Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-9,7-11,11-2,11-5.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 32,544, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Martin Svec: 21,297, level confidence: 55%.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Martin Svec.

Todd Harrity won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played 33% better than Martin Svec in this match.

As Todd Harrity has played below his allowed range at 28,741, his level reduction is 1.7% before damping. On the assumption that Todd Harrity would normally have been playing at level 30,849 (based on typical behaviour), Martin Svec played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 3.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to -1.2% and Martin Svec changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes -0.5% and for Martin Svec becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Kolkata International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 82%, Martin Svec: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 76%, Martin Svec: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 32,276, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Martin Svec: 21,690, level confidence: 69%.