Michael McLaughlin v Matthew Marshall (Sat 10 Nov 2018)
Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-7,4-11,9-11,2-11.
Starting level for
Michael McLaughlin:
8,187, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Matthew Marshall:
10,254, level confidence: 66%.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Michael McLaughlin.
Matthew Marshall won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played
35% better than Michael McLaughlin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of
10,627 and Michael McLaughlin at a level of
7,900. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 3.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +3.2% and Michael McLaughlin changes to -2.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +1.5% and for Michael McLaughlin becomes -1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Midlands Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is +1.4% and for Michael McLaughlin is -1.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 81%, Michael McLaughlin: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 78%, Michael McLaughlin: 86%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin:
8,074, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall:
10,381, level confidence: 78%.