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Michael McLaughlin v Mike Potter (Sat 10 Nov 2018)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 11-9,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 7,885, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike Potter: 7,128, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Mike Potter.

Michael McLaughlin won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 36% better than Mike Potter in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael McLaughlin actually played at a level of 8,749 and Mike Potter at a level of 6,424. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to +10.1% and Mike Potter changes to -10.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes +3.4% and for Mike Potter becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Midlands Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is +3% and for Mike Potter is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 89%, Mike Potter: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 80%, Mike Potter: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,111, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mike Potter: 6,975, level confidence: 79%.