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Marcus Hayes v Nathan Miller (Fri 09 Nov 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-5,11-4,9-11,12-10.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,590, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Miller: 5,604, level confidence: 59%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Nathan Miller.

Marcus Hayes won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 31% better than Nathan Miller in this match.

As Marcus Hayes has played below his allowed range at 7,503, his level reduction is 2.2% before damping. On the assumption that Marcus Hayes would normally have been playing at level 8,137 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan Miller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to -1.4% and Nathan Miller changes to +4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes -0.7% and for Nathan Miller becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 90% for 'Midlands Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is -0.6% and for Nathan Miller is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 87%, Nathan Miller: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 80%, Nathan Miller: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,523, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Nathan Miller: 5,699, level confidence: 71%.