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Michael McLaughlin v Andrew Kettlewell (Fri 09 Nov 2018)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 7,897, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andrew Kettlewell: 2,944, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 168% better than Andrew Kettlewell.

Michael McLaughlin won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 120% better than Andrew Kettlewell in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Michael McLaughlin was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,838 and 7,897 without affecting his level.

In this case, Michael McLaughlin played at level 6,477 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Andrew Kettlewell is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 88%, Andrew Kettlewell: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 79%, Andrew Kettlewell: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 7,885, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Andrew Kettlewell: 2,940, level confidence: 77%.