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Greg Lobban v James Earles (Wed 07 Nov 2018)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-5,12-10,11-3.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 38,463, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Earles: 14,810, level confidence: 56%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 160% better than James Earles.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 89% better than James Earles in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Greg Lobban was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,409 and 38,463 without affecting his level.

In this case, Greg Lobban played at level 29,375 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Greg Lobban would normally have been playing at level 30,846 (based on typical behaviour), James Earles played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to 0% and James Earles changes to +3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes 0% and for James Earles becomes +1.4%.

Given James Earles's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Greg Lobban is 0% and for James Earles is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 93%, James Earles: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 80%, James Earles: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 38,559, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for James Earles: 14,967, level confidence: 64%.