Youssef Soliman v Mazen Gamal (Fri 02 Nov 2018)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-5,11-8,11-6.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
34,696, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mazen Gamal:
28,507, level confidence: 69%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Mazen Gamal.
Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
74% better than Mazen Gamal in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of
41,447 and Mazen Gamal at a level of
23,864. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +15% and Mazen Gamal changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +3.4% and for Mazen Gamal becomes -4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wadi Degla Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 90%, Mazen Gamal: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 75%, Mazen Gamal: 69%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
35,707, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Mazen Gamal:
27,627, level confidence: 69%.