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Ali Farag v Tarek Momen (Thu 01 Nov 2018)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-9,6-11,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 66,263, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tarek Momen: 58,084, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Tarek Momen.

Ali Farag won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 27% better than Tarek Momen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 69,818 and Tarek Momen at a level of 55,127. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +5% and Tarek Momen changes to -5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +1.4% and for Tarek Momen becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 94%, Tarek Momen: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 89%, Tarek Momen: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 67,105, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Tarek Momen: 57,481, level confidence: 88%.