Diego Elias v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Wed 31 Oct 2018)
Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-8,11-13,13-11,10-12,11-7.
Starting level for
Diego Elias:
48,173, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
62,870, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Diego Elias.
Diego Elias won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played
10% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of
57,706 and Mohamed Elshorbagy at a level of
52,484. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +17% and Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +3.6% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 80%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 67%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Diego Elias:
49,895, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
61,684, level confidence: 75%.