Youssef Soliman v Ammar Altamimi (Tue 30 Oct 2018)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-9.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
35,729, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ammar Altamimi:
21,815, level confidence: 69%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
64% better than Ammar Altamimi.
Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
40% better than Ammar Altamimi in this match.
As Youssef Soliman has played below his allowed range at 30,759, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Youssef Soliman would normally have been playing at level 33,318 (based on typical behaviour), Ammar Altamimi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 3.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to -0.6% and Ammar Altamimi changes to +3.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes -0.2% and for Ammar Altamimi becomes +1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wadi Degla Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 93%, Ammar Altamimi: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 85%, Ammar Altamimi: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
35,496, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Ammar Altamimi:
22,228, level confidence: 77%.