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Karim Abdel Gawad v Declan James (Tue 30 Oct 2018)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 8-11,11-9,13-11,7-11,11-2.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 48,714, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Declan James: 41,586, level confidence: 68%.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Declan James.

Karim Abdel Gawad won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 11% better than Declan James in this match.

As Karim Abdel Gawad has played below his allowed range at 47,070, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Karim Abdel Gawad would normally have been playing at level 48,375 (based on typical behaviour), Declan James played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to -1.6% and Declan James changes to +2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes -0.6% and for Declan James becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 88%, Declan James: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 86%, Declan James: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 48,386, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Declan James: 42,091, level confidence: 80%.