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Saurav Ghosal v Leo Au (Mon 29 Oct 2018)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 44,590, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Leo Au: 38,881, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Leo Au.

Saurav Ghosal won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 230% better than Leo Au in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of 75,639 and Leo Au at a level of 22,921. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 70% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +64% and Leo Au changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +10.4% and for Leo Au becomes -7.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Saurav Ghosal is limited to +5.1% and Leo Au is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 75%, Leo Au: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 44%, Leo Au: 52%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 46,938, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Leo Au: 37,765, level confidence: 52%.