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Declan James v Karim Ali Fathi (Mon 29 Oct 2018)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Declan James: 40,860, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 33,085, level confidence: 50%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Karim Ali Fathi.

Declan James won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 74% better than Karim Ali Fathi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 48,456 and Karim Ali Fathi at a level of 27,899. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +13% and Karim Ali Fathi changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +2.9% and for Karim Ali Fathi becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 81%, Karim Ali Fathi: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 68%, Karim Ali Fathi: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 41,897, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 32,147, level confidence: 60%.