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Joel Makin v Miguel Rodriguez (Mon 29 Oct 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-4,6-11,11-7,10-12,11-9.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 49,617, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,395, level confidence: 67%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Miguel Rodriguez.

Joel Makin won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 11% better than Miguel Rodriguez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 51,624 and Miguel Rodriguez at a level of 46,513. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +3.8% and Miguel Rodriguez changes to -4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +1.2% and for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 84%, Miguel Rodriguez: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 81%, Miguel Rodriguez: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 50,236, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 47,889, level confidence: 79%.