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Mathieu Castagnet v Cameron Pilley (Mon 29 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 16-14,11-2,11-8.

Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 44,307, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 39,374, level confidence: 50%.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Cameron Pilley.

Mathieu Castagnet won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played 57% better than Cameron Pilley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mathieu Castagnet actually played at a level of 52,374 and Cameron Pilley at a level of 33,310. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to +11% and Cameron Pilley changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes +2.6% and for Cameron Pilley becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 87%, Cameron Pilley: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 74%, Cameron Pilley: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 45,360, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley: 38,232, level confidence: 60%.