Diego Elias v Raphael Kandra (Mon 29 Oct 2018)
Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 10-12,11-4,11-3,11-5.
Starting level for
Diego Elias:
44,323, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
42,628, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Raphael Kandra.
Diego Elias won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played
43% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of
51,957 and Raphael Kandra at a level of
36,365. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +17% and Raphael Kandra changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +3.6% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -2.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 81%, Raphael Kandra: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 69%, Raphael Kandra: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Diego Elias:
45,768, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
41,833, level confidence: 78%.