SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Karim Ali Fathi v Gregoire Marche (Sun 28 Oct 2018)

Match won by Karim Ali Fathi. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 31,220, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 42,964, level confidence: 68%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Karim Ali Fathi.

Karim Ali Fathi won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Ali Fathi played 56% better than Gregoire Marche in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Ali Fathi actually played at a level of 45,808 and Gregoire Marche at a level of 29,282. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 39% and 39% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Ali Fathi changes to +39% and Gregoire Marche changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Ali Fathi becomes +7.4% and for Gregoire Marche becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Karim Ali Fathi is limited to +5.7% and Gregoire Marche is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Ali Fathi: 74%, Gregoire Marche: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Ali Fathi: 50%, Gregoire Marche: 56%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 33,040, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche: 40,977, level confidence: 56%.