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Cameron Pilley v Abdulrahman Al-Malki (Sun 28 Oct 2018)

Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 39,374, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Abdulrahman Al-Malki: 6,351, level confidence: 40%.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing 520% better than Abdulrahman Al-Malki.

Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played 120% better than Abdulrahman Al-Malki in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Cameron Pilley was taking it easy by anything up to 48%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,585 and 39,374 without affecting his level.

In this case, Cameron Pilley played at level 16,889 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Cameron Pilley would normally have been playing at level 20,415 (based on typical behaviour), Abdulrahman Al-Malki played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to 0% and Abdulrahman Al-Malki changes to +7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes 0% and for Abdulrahman Al-Malki becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Qatar Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 84%, Abdulrahman Al-Malki: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 50%, Abdulrahman Al-Malki: 38%.

Final level for Cameron Pilley: 39,374, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Abdulrahman Al-Malki: 6,540, level confidence: 38%.