SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Anthony Rogal v Michael McLaughlin (Tue 30 Oct 2018)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-2.

Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 11,624, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 7,768, level confidence: 69%.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Michael McLaughlin.

Anthony Rogal won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 154% better than Michael McLaughlin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Rogal actually played at a level of 15,140 and Michael McLaughlin at a level of 5,964. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to +19% and Michael McLaughlin changes to -24%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes +5.1% and for Michael McLaughlin becomes -6.7%.

Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Anthony Rogal is +3.1% and for Michael McLaughlin is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 93%, Michael McLaughlin: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 72%, Michael McLaughlin: 64%.

A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Rogal: 12,018, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 7,619, level confidence: 64%.