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Yuri Farneti v Quentin Leclerc (Tue 23 Oct 2018)

Match won by Yuri Farneti. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Yuri Farneti: 19,153, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Quentin Leclerc: 4,962, level confidence: 54%.
Yuri Farneti to win as he is currently playing 286% better than Quentin Leclerc.

Yuri Farneti won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yuri Farneti played 136% better than Quentin Leclerc in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Yuri Farneti was taking it easy by anything up to 33%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,571 and 19,153 without affecting his level.

In this case, Yuri Farneti played at level 12,241 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Yuri Farneti would normally have been playing at level 12,812 (based on typical behaviour), Quentin Leclerc played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yuri Farneti changes to 0% and Quentin Leclerc changes to +2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yuri Farneti becomes 0% and for Quentin Leclerc becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chateau Arnoux Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yuri Farneti: 69%, Quentin Leclerc: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yuri Farneti: 54%, Quentin Leclerc: 58%.

Final level for Yuri Farneti: 19,153, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Quentin Leclerc: 5,022, level confidence: 58%.