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Marcus Hayes v Nicolette Fernandes (Mon 22 Oct 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-2,11-3,8-11,11-3.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,653, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nicolette Fernandes: 5,603, level confidence: 65%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Nicolette Fernandes.

Marcus Hayes won 75% of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 116% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 55% better than Nicolette Fernandes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of 8,668 and Nicolette Fernandes at a level of 5,593. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to 0% and Nicolette Fernandes changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +0.1% and for Nicolette Fernandes becomes 0%.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nicolette Fernandes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.6% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is 0% and for Nicolette Fernandes is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 84%, Nicolette Fernandes: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 84%, Nicolette Fernandes: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,678, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Nicolette Fernandes: 5,614, level confidence: 81%.