Sarah-Jane Perry v Salma Hany (Sun 21 Oct 2018)
Match won by Sarah-Jane Perry. Result: 15-17,11-8,11-8,11-9.
Starting level for
Sarah-Jane Perry:
10,996, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Salma Hany:
9,144, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Sarah-Jane Perry to win as she is currently playing
20% better than Salma Hany.
Sarah-Jane Perry won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sarah-Jane Perry played
21% better than Salma Hany in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sarah-Jane Perry actually played at a level of
11,051 and Salma Hany at a level of
9,098. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sarah-Jane Perry changes to +0.4% and Salma Hany changes to -0.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sarah-Jane Perry becomes +0.2% and for Salma Hany becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Carol Weymuller Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sarah-Jane Perry: 94%, Salma Hany: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sarah-Jane Perry: 93%, Salma Hany: 85%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Sarah-Jane Perry:
10,923, level confidence: 93%.
Final level for Salma Hany:
9,171, level confidence: 85%.