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Ali Farag v Karim Abdel Gawad (Sat 20 Oct 2018)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 7-11,11-5,11-2,11-9.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 66,903, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 49,068, level confidence: 68%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Karim Abdel Gawad.

Ali Farag won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 33% better than Karim Abdel Gawad in this match.

In this case, Ali Farag played at level 65,083 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Karim Abdel Gawad is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 89%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 87%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 66,931, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 49,369, level confidence: 82%.