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Tarek Momen v Diego Elias (Sat 20 Oct 2018)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 15-13,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 53,203, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Diego Elias: 45,338, level confidence: 61%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Diego Elias.

Tarek Momen won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 50% better than Diego Elias in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of 60,213 and Diego Elias at a level of 40,059. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +10.3% and Diego Elias changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +2.4% and for Diego Elias becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 85%, Diego Elias: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 75%, Diego Elias: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 54,294, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Diego Elias: 44,466, level confidence: 69%.