Ryan Cuskelly v Mostafa Asal (Sat 20 Oct 2018)
Match won by Ryan Cuskelly. Result: 12-10,11-7,11-2.
Starting level for
Ryan Cuskelly:
47,517, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Mostafa Asal:
31,409, level confidence: 63%.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing
51% better than Mostafa Asal.
Ryan Cuskelly won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Cuskelly played
79% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Cuskelly actually played at a level of
51,679 and Mostafa Asal at a level of
28,879. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 7.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly changes to +7.1% and Mostafa Asal changes to -6.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly becomes +1.8% and for Mostafa Asal becomes -2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Cuskelly: 78%, Mostafa Asal: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Cuskelly: 72%, Mostafa Asal: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly:
48,107, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal:
30,986, level confidence: 73%.