Salma Hany v Tesni Murphy (Sat 20 Oct 2018)
Match won by Salma Hany. Result: 10-12,6-11,11-8,11-7,11-9.
Starting level for
Salma Hany:
8,850, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Tesni Murphy:
10,622, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Tesni Murphy to win as she is currently playing
20% better than Salma Hany.
Salma Hany won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Salma Hany played
9% better than Tesni Murphy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Salma Hany actually played at a level of
10,102 and Tesni Murphy at a level of
9,305. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Salma Hany changes to +13% and Tesni Murphy changes to -10.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Salma Hany becomes +3.9% and for Tesni Murphy becomes -3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Carol Weymuller Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Salma Hany: 83%, Tesni Murphy: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Salma Hany: 73%, Tesni Murphy: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Salma Hany:
9,144, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Tesni Murphy:
10,273, level confidence: 80%.