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Karim Abdel Gawad v Saurav Ghosal (Fri 19 Oct 2018)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-8.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 47,043, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 46,679, level confidence: 62%.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Saurav Ghosal.

Karim Abdel Gawad won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 83% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Abdel Gawad actually played at a level of 63,450 and Saurav Ghosal at a level of 34,609. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +25% and Saurav Ghosal changes to -35%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +4.9% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Saurav Ghosal is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 93%, Saurav Ghosal: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 69%, Saurav Ghosal: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 49,068, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 44,474, level confidence: 58%.