Shawn Delierre v Bernat Jaume (Fri 19 Oct 2018)
Match won by Shawn Delierre. Result: 8-11,11-7,11-8,11-0.
Starting level for
Shawn Delierre:
21,988, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Bernat Jaume:
28,113, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Bernat Jaume to win as he is currently playing
28% better than Shawn Delierre.
Shawn Delierre won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shawn Delierre played
36% better than Bernat Jaume in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shawn Delierre actually played at a level of
28,972 and Bernat Jaume at a level of
21,336. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shawn Delierre changes to +28% and Bernat Jaume changes to -25%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shawn Delierre becomes +6% and for Bernat Jaume becomes -5.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shawn Delierre: 84%, Bernat Jaume: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shawn Delierre: 64%, Bernat Jaume: 67%.
A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Shawn Delierre:
23,222, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Bernat Jaume:
27,444, level confidence: 67%.