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Ali Farag v Declan James (Thu 18 Oct 2018)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 13-11,7-11,11-7,13-11.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 68,247, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Declan James: 39,143, level confidence: 95%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Declan James.

Ali Farag won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 20% better than Declan James in this match.

As Ali Farag has played below his allowed range at 51,931, his level reduction is 10.5% before damping. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 62,584 (based on typical behaviour), Declan James played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to -7.9% and Declan James changes to +8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes -1.9% and for Declan James becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 85%, Declan James: 98%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 70%, Declan James: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 66,877, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Declan James: 40,058, level confidence: 81%.