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Karim Abdel Gawad v Greg Lobban (Thu 18 Oct 2018)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 3-11,11-8,11-8,15-13.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 47,457, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 39,438, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Greg Lobban.

Karim Abdel Gawad won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 17% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

As Karim Abdel Gawad has played below his allowed range at 46,245, his level reduction is 0.4% before damping. On the assumption that Karim Abdel Gawad would normally have been playing at level 46,949 (based on typical behaviour), Greg Lobban played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to -0.4% and Greg Lobban changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes -0.1% and for Greg Lobban becomes +0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 87%, Greg Lobban: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 86%, Greg Lobban: 92%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 47,234, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 39,689, level confidence: 92%.