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Diego Elias v Daryl Selby (Thu 18 Oct 2018)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 41,664, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 40,636, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Daryl Selby.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 106% better than Daryl Selby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of 59,093 and Daryl Selby at a level of 28,651. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +41% and Daryl Selby changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +7.4% and for Daryl Selby becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Diego Elias is limited to +5.2% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 75%, Daryl Selby: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 53%, Daryl Selby: 63%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 43,817, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 39,724, level confidence: 63%.