Declan James v Adrain Waller (Wed 17 Oct 2018)
Match won by Declan James. Result: 9-11,15-13,11-8,7-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Declan James:
39,246, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Adrain Waller:
35,602, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Adrain Waller.
Declan James won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played
10% better than Adrain Waller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of
39,223 and Adrain Waller at a level of
35,623. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to 0% and Adrain Waller changes to 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 96%, Adrain Waller: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 95%, Adrain Waller: 84%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Declan James:
39,143, level confidence: 95%.
Final level for Adrain Waller:
35,668, level confidence: 84%.