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Cameron Pilley v Chris Simpson (Wed 17 Oct 2018)

Match won by Cameron Pilley. Result: 11-7,14-12,11-6.

Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 38,969, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 36,651, level confidence: 61%.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Chris Simpson.

Cameron Pilley won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Pilley played 48% better than Chris Simpson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Pilley actually played at a level of 45,919 and Chris Simpson at a level of 31,104. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley changes to +16% and Chris Simpson changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Pilley becomes +3.5% and for Chris Simpson becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Pilley: 80%, Chris Simpson: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Pilley: 68%, Chris Simpson: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cameron Pilley: 40,138, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 35,467, level confidence: 66%.