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Daryl Selby v Ben Coleman (Wed 17 Oct 2018)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-9,11-2,9-11,11-8.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 40,845, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 29,620, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Daryl Selby to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Ben Coleman.

Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 30% better than Ben Coleman in this match.

In this case, Daryl Selby played at level 39,005 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Daryl Selby would normally have been playing at level 39,526 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Coleman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to 0% and Ben Coleman changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes 0% and for Ben Coleman becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA St Georges Hill Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 82%, Ben Coleman: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 79%, Ben Coleman: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 40,636, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 29,883, level confidence: 83%.