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Nick Matthew v Adam Auckland (Wed 17 Oct 2018)

Match won by Nick Matthew. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Nick Matthew: 50,983, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Adam Auckland: 23,171, level confidence: 58%.
Nick Matthew to win as he is currently playing 120% better than Adam Auckland.

Nick Matthew won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Matthew played 65% better than Adam Auckland in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nick Matthew was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 35,409 and 50,983 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nick Matthew played at level 40,714 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nick Matthew would normally have been playing at level 43,357 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Auckland played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Matthew changes to 0% and Adam Auckland changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Matthew becomes 0% and for Adam Auckland becomes +1.5%.

Given Adam Auckland's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nick Matthew is 0% and for Adam Auckland is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Matthew: 73%, Adam Auckland: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Matthew: 64%, Adam Auckland: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Matthew: 51,111, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Adam Auckland: 23,406, level confidence: 66%.