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Michael McLaughlin v Keith Timms (Mon 15 Oct 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 6-11,10-12,11-7,11-7,9-11.

Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,084, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keith Timms: 8,717, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Michael McLaughlin.

Keith Timms won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 8% better than Michael McLaughlin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Timms actually played at a level of 8,725 and Michael McLaughlin at a level of 8,076. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to 0% and Michael McLaughlin changes to 0%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 84%, Michael McLaughlin: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 84%, Michael McLaughlin: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 8,102, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Keith Timms: 8,741, level confidence: 84%.