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Sam Todd v Peter Billson (Tue 16 Oct 2018)

Match won by Sam Todd. Result: 11-7,14-16,10-12,11-8,11-3.

Starting level for Sam Todd: 13,387, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Peter Billson: 17,023, level confidence: 64%.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Sam Todd.

Sam Todd won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Todd played 13% better than Peter Billson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Todd actually played at a level of 16,081 and Peter Billson at a level of 14,171. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Todd changes to +18% and Peter Billson changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Todd becomes +4.6% and for Peter Billson becomes -4%.

Given Sam Todd's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Given Peter Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Sam Todd is +2.8% and for Peter Billson is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Todd: 76%, Peter Billson: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Todd: 63%, Peter Billson: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam Todd: 13,790, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Peter Billson: 16,724, level confidence: 67%.