SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Sam Scivier v Marcus Hayes (Mon 15 Oct 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 9-11,9-11,7-11.

Starting level for Sam Scivier: 8,365, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,349, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Sam Scivier to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Marcus Hayes.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 40% better than Sam Scivier in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of 9,874 and Sam Scivier at a level of 7,073. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +18% and Sam Scivier changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +5.1% and for Sam Scivier becomes -5.3%.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Sam Scivier's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is +3.4% and for Sam Scivier is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 86%, Sam Scivier: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 72%, Sam Scivier: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam Scivier: 8,105, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,655, level confidence: 72%.