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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Paul Coll (Fri 12 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 7-11,11-8,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 64,843, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Coll: 55,988, level confidence: 70%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Paul Coll.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 29% better than Paul Coll in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 68,505 and Paul Coll at a level of 52,995. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +4.3% and Paul Coll changes to -5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +1.3% and for Paul Coll becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 92%, Paul Coll: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 87%, Paul Coll: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 65,514, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Paul Coll: 55,309, level confidence: 79%.