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Youssef Soliman v Farhan Mehboob (Thu 11 Oct 2018)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 12-10,9-11,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 35,632, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Farhan Mehboob: 30,685, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Farhan Mehboob.

Youssef Soliman won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 27% better than Farhan Mehboob in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of 37,227 and Farhan Mehboob at a level of 29,370. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +4.1% and Farhan Mehboob changes to -3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +1.4% and for Farhan Mehboob becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Fmc International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 81%, Farhan Mehboob: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 78%, Farhan Mehboob: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 36,012, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Farhan Mehboob: 30,402, level confidence: 82%.