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Paul Coll v Tarek Momen (Thu 11 Oct 2018)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 6-11,11-8,5-11,11-7,13-11.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 56,530, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Tarek Momen: 50,686, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Tarek Momen.

Paul Coll won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 6% better than Tarek Momen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Coll actually played at a level of 55,230 and Tarek Momen at a level of 51,879. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to -2.2% and Tarek Momen changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes -0.8% and for Tarek Momen becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 72%, Tarek Momen: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 70%, Tarek Momen: 91%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 56,038, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Tarek Momen: 51,008, level confidence: 91%.