Mohamed Elshorbagy v Mohamed Abouelghar (Thu 11 Oct 2018)
Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-9,11-9,11-4.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
64,097, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mohamed Abouelghar:
52,098, level confidence: 67%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Mohamed Abouelghar.
Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played
52% better than Mohamed Abouelghar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of
71,162 and Mohamed Abouelghar at a level of
46,925. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +7.4% and Mohamed Abouelghar changes to -9.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +1.8% and for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 94%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 85%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
65,072, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar:
51,164, level confidence: 74%.