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Miguel Rodriguez v Cesar Salazar (Wed 10 Oct 2018)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-13,11-9.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 49,971, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 42,750, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Cesar Salazar.

Miguel Rodriguez won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 24% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miguel Rodriguez actually played at a level of 51,485 and Cesar Salazar at a level of 41,493. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to +2.8% and Cesar Salazar changes to -2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +1% and for Cesar Salazar becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 83%, Cesar Salazar: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 81%, Cesar Salazar: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 50,226, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar: 42,535, level confidence: 88%.