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Mohamed Abouelghar v Karim Abdel Gawad (Wed 10 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 11-8,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 50,650, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 48,020, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Karim Abdel Gawad.

Mohamed Abouelghar won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 36% better than Karim Abdel Gawad in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of 57,412 and Karim Abdel Gawad at a level of 42,364. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +13% and Karim Abdel Gawad changes to -9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +2.8% and for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes -2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 76%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 67%, Karim Abdel Gawad: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 51,920, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 47,111, level confidence: 79%.