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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Saurav Ghosal (Wed 10 Oct 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-5,16-14,11-9.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 64,246, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 44,350, level confidence: 64%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Saurav Ghosal.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 42% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

In this case, Mohamed Elshorbagy played at level 63,012 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Saurav Ghosal is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 90%, Saurav Ghosal: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 89%, Saurav Ghosal: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 64,229, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 44,497, level confidence: 79%.