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Youssef Soliman v Robert Downer (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-9,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 37,075, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Robert Downer: 16,466, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 125% better than Robert Downer.

Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 33% better than Robert Downer in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Youssef Soliman was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 26,409 and 37,075 without affecting his level.

As Youssef Soliman has played below his allowed range at 24,004, his level reduction is 10% before damping. On the assumption that Youssef Soliman would normally have been playing at level 31,291 (based on typical behaviour), Robert Downer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to -6.6% and Robert Downer changes to +10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes -1.8% and for Robert Downer becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Fmc International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 80%, Robert Downer: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 62%, Robert Downer: 68%.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 36,402, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Robert Downer: 16,954, level confidence: 68%.