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Salma Hany v Nadine Shahin (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Salma Hany. Result: 5-11,15-13,5-11,11-9,14-12.

Starting level for Salma Hany: 8,944, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Nadine Shahin: 7,058, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Salma Hany to win as she is currently playing 27% better than Nadine Shahin.

Salma Hany won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was worse by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Salma Hany played 5% better than Nadine Shahin in this match.

As Salma Hany has played below her allowed range at 7,985, her level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Salma Hany would normally have been playing at level 8,780 (based on typical behaviour), Nadine Shahin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Salma Hany changes to -7% and Nadine Shahin changes to +5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Salma Hany becomes -2.6% and for Nadine Shahin becomes +2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Salma Hany: 77%, Nadine Shahin: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Salma Hany: 70%, Nadine Shahin: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Salma Hany: 8,684, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Nadine Shahin: 7,213, level confidence: 81%.